Mercedes Pascual

Infectious disease dynamics, Theoretical ecology, Ecology and evolution of infectious diseases, Mathematical and computational biology, Climate and health, Vector-borne and water-borne infections
  • Universidad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires, Argentina, Licenciatura Biology 12/1985
  • New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, M.Sc. Mathematics 06/1989
  • WHOI and MIT, Woods Hole, MA, PhD Biological Oceanography 07/1995
  • Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, Postoctoral Theoretical Ecology 08/1997
Biosciences Graduate Program Association
Awards & Honors
  • 1995 - 1997 US Department of Energy Alexander Hollaender Distinguished Postdoctoral Fellowship Princeton University
  • 1999 - 2008 James S. McDonnell Centennial Fellowship in Global and Complex Systems University of Michigan
  • 2003 - Discover Magazine: Top 50 Women in Science
  • 2003 - Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science
  • 2004 - Faculty Recognition Award University of Michigan
  • 2008 - Collegiate Professor University of Michigan
  • 2008 - Howard Hugues Medical Investigator University of Michigan
  • 2014 - Robert H. MacArthur Award of the Ecological Society of America
  • 2015 - Fellow of the Ecological Society of America
  • 2019 - American Academy of Arts and Sciences
  1. Tiedje KE, Oduro AR, Bangre O, Amenga-Etego L, Dadzie SK, Appawu MA, Frempong K, Asoala V, Ruybal-Pésantez S, Narh CA, Deed SL, Argyropoulos DC, Ghansah A, Agyei SA, Segbaya S, Desewu K, Williams I, Simpson JA, Malm K, Pascual M, Koram KA, Day KP. Indoor residual spraying with a non-pyrethroid insecticide reduces the reservoir of Plasmodium falciparum in a high-transmission area in northern Ghana. PLOS Glob Public Health. 2022; 2(5). View in: PubMed

  2. He Q, Pilosof S, Tiedje KE, Day KP, Pascual M. Frequency-Dependent Competition Between Strains Imparts Persistence to Perturbations in a Model of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Transmission. Front Ecol Evol. 2021; 9. View in: PubMed

  3. Romeo-Aznar V, Picinini Freitas L, Gonçalves Cruz O, King AA, Pascual M. Author Correction: Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics. Nat Commun. 2022 Mar 11; 13(1):1404. View in: PubMed

  4. Romeo-Aznar V, Picinini Freitas L, Gonçalves Cruz O, King AA, Pascual M. Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics. Nat Commun. 2022 02 22; 13(1):996. View in: PubMed

  5. Ruybal-Pesántez S, Tiedje KE, Pilosof S, Tonkin-Hill G, He Q, Rask TS, Amenga-Etego L, Oduro AR, Koram KA, Pascual M, Day KP. Age-specific patterns of DBLa var diversity can explain why residents of high malaria transmission areas remain susceptible to Plasmodium falciparum blood stage infection throughout life. Int J Parasitol. 2022 10; 52(11):721-731. View in: PubMed

  6. Argyropoulos DC, Ruybal-Pesántez S, Deed SL, Oduro AR, Dadzie SK, Appawu MA, Asoala V, Pascual M, Koram KA, Day KP, Tiedje KE. The impact of indoor residual spraying on Plasmodium falciparum microsatellite variation in an area of high seasonal malaria transmission in Ghana, West Africa. Mol Ecol. 2021 08; 30(16):3974-3992. View in: PubMed

  7. Pascual M, Baeza A. What happens when forests fall? Elife. 2021 04 06; 10. View in: PubMed

  8. Rodó X, Martinez PP, Siraj A, Pascual M. Malaria trends in Ethiopian highlands track the 2000 'slowdown' in global warming. Nat Commun. 2021 03 10; 12(1):1555. View in: PubMed

  9. He Q, Pascual M. An antigenic diversification threshold for falciparum malaria transmission at high endemicity. PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 02; 17(2):e1008729. View in: PubMed

  10. Subramanian R, He Q, Pascual M. Quantifying asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19 in New York City using observed cases, serology, and testing capacity. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 03 02; 118(9). View in: PubMed

  11. Pilosof S, Alcalá-Corona SA, Wang T, Kim T, Maslov S, Whitaker R, Pascual M. The network structure and eco-evolutionary dynamics of CRISPR-induced immune diversification. Nat Ecol Evol. 2020 12; 4(12):1650-1660. View in: PubMed

  12. Subramanian R, Romeo-Aznar V, Ionides E, Codeço CT, Pascual M. Predicting re-emergence times of dengue epidemics at low reproductive numbers: DENV1 in Rio de Janeiro, 1986-1990. J R Soc Interface. 2020 06; 17(167):20200273. View in: PubMed

  13. Martinez PP, Mahmud AS, Yunus M, Faruque ASG, Ahmed T, Pascual M, Buckee CO. Tube Well Use as Protection Against Rotavirus Infection During the Monsoons in an Urban Setting. J Infect Dis. 2020 01 02; 221(2):238-242. View in: PubMed

  14. Castro MC, Baeza A, Codeço CT, Cucunubá ZM, Dal'Asta AP, De Leo GA, Dobson AP, Carrasco-Escobar G, Lana RM, Lowe R, Monteiro AMV, Pascual M, Santos-Vega M. Development, environmental degradation, and disease spread in the Brazilian Amazon. PLoS Biol. 2019 11; 17(11):e3000526. View in: PubMed

  15. Pilosof S, He Q, Tiedje KE, Ruybal-Pesántez S, Day KP, Pascual M. Competition for hosts modulates vast antigenic diversity to generate persistent strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum. PLoS Biol. 2019 06; 17(6):e3000336. View in: PubMed

  16. Romeo-Aznar V, Paul R, Telle O, Pascual M. Mosquito-borne transmission in urban landscapes: the missing link between vector abundance and human density. Proc Biol Sci. 2018 08 15; 285(1884). View in: PubMed

  17. Rorick MM, Baskerville EB, Rask TS, Day KP, Pascual M. Identifying functional groups among the diverse, recombining antigenic var genes of the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum from a local community in Ghana. PLoS Comput Biol. 2018 06; 14(6):e1006174. View in: PubMed

  18. He Q, Pilosof S, Tiedje KE, Ruybal-Pesántez S, Artzy-Randrup Y, Baskerville EB, Day KP, Pascual M. Networks of genetic similarity reveal non-neutral processes shape strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum. Nat Commun. 2018 05 08; 9(1):1817. View in: PubMed

  19. Rorick MM, Artzy-Randrup Y, Ruybal-Pesántez S, Tiedje KE, Rask TS, Oduro A, Ghansah A, Koram K, Day KP, Pascual M. Signatures of competition and strain structure within the major blood-stage antigen of Plasmodium falciparum in a local community in Ghana. Ecol Evol. 2018 Apr; 8(7):3574-3588. View in: PubMed

  20. Du X, Pascual M. Incidence Prediction for the 2017-2018 Influenza Season in the United States with an Evolution-informed Model. PLoS Curr. 2018 Jan 17; 10. View in: PubMed

  21. Michalska-Smith MJ, Sander EL, Pascual M, Allesina S. Understanding the role of parasites in food webs using the group model. J Anim Ecol. 2018 05; 87(3):790-800. View in: PubMed

  22. Perez-Saez J, King AA, Rinaldo A, Yunus M, Faruque ASG, Pascual M. Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity. Adv Water Resour. 2017 Oct; 108:367-376. View in: PubMed

  23. Du X, King AA, Woods RJ, Pascual M. Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2). Sci Transl Med. 2017 Oct 25; 9(413). View in: PubMed

  24. Baeza A, Santos-Vega M, Dobson AP, Pascual M. The rise and fall of malaria under land-use change in frontier regions. Nat Ecol Evol. 2017 Mar 20; 1(5):108. View in: PubMed

  25. Pilosof S, Porter MA, Pascual M, Kéfi S. The multilayer nature of ecological networks. Nat Ecol Evol. 2017 Mar 23; 1(4):101. View in: PubMed

  26. Tiedje KE, Oduro AR, Agongo G, Anyorigiya T, Azongo D, Awine T, Ghansah A, Pascual M, Koram KA, Day KP. Seasonal Variation in the Epidemiology of Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum Infections across Two Catchment Areas in Bongo District, Ghana. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2017 Jul; 97(1):199-212. View in: PubMed

  27. Day KP, Artzy-Randrup Y, Tiedje KE, Rougeron V, Chen DS, Rask TS, Rorick MM, Migot-Nabias F, Deloron P, Luty AJF, Pascual M. Evidence of strain structure in Plasmodium falciparum var gene repertoires in children from Gabon, West Africa. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 05 16; 114(20):E4103-E4111. View in: PubMed

  28. Martinez PP, Reiner RC, Cash BA, Rodó X, Shahjahan Mondal M, Roy M, Yunus M, Faruque AS, Huq S, King AA, Pascual M. Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El Niño: Lessons learned. PLoS One. 2017; 12(3):e0172355. View in: PubMed

  29. Santos-Vega M, Bouma MJ, Kohli V, Pascual M. Population Density, Climate Variables and Poverty Synergistically Structure Spatial Risk in Urban Malaria in India. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2016 12; 10(12):e0005155. View in: PubMed

  30. Santos-Vega M, Martinez PP, Pascual M. Climate forcing and infectious disease transmission in urban landscapes: integrating demographic and socioeconomic heterogeneity. Ann N Y Acad Sci. 2016 10; 1382(1):44-55. View in: PubMed

  31. Martinez PP, King AA, Yunus M, Faruque AS, Pascual M. Differential and enhanced response to climate forcing in diarrheal disease due to rotavirus across a megacity of the developing world. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Apr 12; 113(15):4092-7. View in: PubMed

  32. Golubski AJ, Westlund EE, Vandermeer J, Pascual M. Ecological Networks over the Edge: Hypergraph Trait-Mediated Indirect Interaction (TMII) Structure. Trends Ecol Evol. 2016 05; 31(5):344-354. View in: PubMed

  33. Siraj AS, Bouma MJ, Santos-Vega M, Yeshiwondim AK, Rothman DS, Yadeta D, Sutton PC, Pascual M. Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria. Proc Biol Sci. 2015 12 07; 282(1820):20151383. View in: PubMed

  34. Roy M, Bouma M, Dhiman RC, Pascual M. Predictability of epidemic malaria under non-stationary conditions with process-based models combining epidemiological updates and climate variability. Malar J. 2015 Oct 26; 14:419. View in: PubMed

  35. Pascual M. Climate and Population Immunity in Malaria Dynamics: Harnessing Information from Endemicity Gradients. Trends Parasitol. 2015 Nov; 31(11):532-534. View in: PubMed

  36. D'Souza K, Epureanu BI, Pascual M. Forecasting Bifurcations from Large Perturbation Recoveries in Feedback Ecosystems. PLoS One. 2015; 10(9):e0137779. View in: PubMed

  37. Artzy-Randrup Y, Dobson AP, Pascual M. Synergistic and antagonistic interactions between bednets and vaccines in the control of malaria. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2015 Mar 10; 112(10):3014-9. View in: PubMed

  38. Pascual M, Roy M, Laneri K. Simple models for complex systems: exploiting the relationship between local and global densities. Theor Ecol. 2011; 4:211-222. View in: PubMed

  39. Warren CP, Pascual M, Lafferty KD, Kuris AM. The inverse niche model for food webs with parasites. Theor Ecol. 2010; 3:285-294. View in: PubMed

  40. Zinder D, Bedford T, Baskerville EB, Woods RJ, Roy M, Pascual M. Seasonality in the migration and establishment of H3N2 Influenza lineages with epidemic growth and decline. BMC Evol Biol. 2014 12 24; 14:272. View in: PubMed

  41. Cash BA, Rodó X, Emch M, Yunus M, Faruque AS, Pascual M. Cholera and shigellosis: different epidemiology but similar responses to climate variability. PLoS One. 2014; 9(9):e107223. View in: PubMed

  42. Roy M, Zinck RD, Bouma MJ, Pascual M. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire. Sci Rep. 2014 Jan 15; 4:3710. View in: PubMed

  43. Rorick MM, Rask TS, Baskerville EB, Day KP, Pascual M. Homology blocks of Plasmodium falciparum var genes and clinically distinct forms of severe malaria in a local population. BMC Microbiol. 2013 Nov 06; 13:244. View in: PubMed

  44. Baeza A, Bouma MJ, Dhiman RC, Baskerville EB, Ceccato P, Yadav RS, Pascual M. Long-lasting transition toward sustainable elimination of desert malaria under irrigation development. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2013 Sep 10; 110(37):15157-62. View in: PubMed

  45. Rorick MM, Pascual M. Influenza evolution navigates stability valleys. Elife. 2013 May 14; 2:e00842. View in: PubMed

  46. Baeza A, Bouma MJ, Dhiman R, Pascual M. Malaria control under unstable dynamics: reactive vs. climate-based strategies. Acta Trop. 2014 Jan; 129:42-51. View in: PubMed

  47. Roy M, Bouma MJ, Ionides EL, Dhiman RC, Pascual M. The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2013; 7(1):e1979. View in: PubMed

  48. Zinder D, Bedford T, Gupta S, Pascual M. The roles of competition and mutation in shaping antigenic and genetic diversity in influenza. PLoS Pathog. 2013 Jan; 9(1):e1003104. View in: PubMed

  49. Artzy-Randrup Y, Rorick MM, Day K, Chen D, Dobson AP, Pascual M. Population structuring of multi-copy, antigen-encoding genes in Plasmodium falciparum. Elife. 2012 Dec 18; 1:e00093. View in: PubMed

  50. Bedford T, Rambaut A, Pascual M. Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus. BMC Biol. 2012 Apr 30; 10:38. View in: PubMed

  51. Reiner RC, King AA, Emch M, Yunus M, Faruque AS, Pascual M. Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2012 Feb 07; 109(6):2033-6. View in: PubMed

  52. Baskerville EB, Dobson AP, Bedford T, Allesina S, Anderson TM, Pascual M. Spatial guilds in the Serengeti food web revealed by a Bayesian group model. PLoS Comput Biol. 2011 Dec; 7(12):e1002321. View in: PubMed

  53. Bouma MJ, Baeza A, terVeen A, Pascual M. Global malaria maps and climate change: a focus on East African highlands. Trends Parasitol. 2011 Oct; 27(10):421-2. View in: PubMed

  54. Bedford T, Cobey S, Pascual M. Strength and tempo of selection revealed in viral gene genealogies. BMC Evol Biol. 2011 Jul 25; 11:220. View in: PubMed

  55. Baeza A, Bouma MJ, Dobson AP, Dhiman R, Srivastava HC, Pascual M. Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigation. Malar J. 2011 Jul 14; 10:190. View in: PubMed

  56. Koelle K, Kamradt M, Pascual M. Understanding the dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens through modeling the tempo of antigenic change: influenza as a case study. Epidemics. 2009 Jun; 1(2):129-37. View in: PubMed

  57. Kéfi S, Rietkerk M, Roy M, Franc A, de Ruiter PC, Pascual M. Robust scaling in ecosystems and the meltdown of patch size distributions before extinction. Ecol Lett. 2011 Jan; 14(1):29-35. View in: PubMed

  58. Alonso D, Bouma MJ, Pascual M. Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland. Proc Biol Sci. 2011 Jun 07; 278(1712):1661-9. View in: PubMed

  59. Artzy-Randrup Y, Alonso D, Pascual M. Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate change. PLoS One. 2010 Oct 26; 5(10):e13588. View in: PubMed

  60. Laneri K, Bhadra A, Ionides EL, Bouma M, Dhiman RC, Yadav RS, Pascual M. Forcing versus feedback: epidemic malaria and monsoon rains in northwest India. PLoS Comput Biol. 2010 Sep 02; 6(9):e1000898. View in: PubMed

  61. Bedford T, Cobey S, Beerli P, Pascual M. Global migration dynamics underlie evolution and persistence of human influenza A (H3N2). PLoS Pathog. 2010 May 27; 6(5):e1000918. View in: PubMed

  62. Cobey S, Pascual M, Dieckmann U. Ecological factors driving the long-term evolution of influenza's host range. Proc Biol Sci. 2010 Sep 22; 277(1695):2803-10. View in: PubMed

  63. Ruiz-Moreno D, Pascual M, Emch M, Yunus M. Spatial clustering in the spatio-temporal dynamics of endemic cholera. BMC Infect Dis. 2010 Mar 06; 10:51. View in: PubMed

  64. Chaves LF, Kaneko A, Pascual M. Random, top-down, or bottom-up coexistence of parasites: malaria population dynamics in multi-parasitic settings. Ecology. 2009 Sep; 90(9):2414-25. View in: PubMed

  65. Allesina S, Pascual M. Googling food webs: can an eigenvector measure species' importance for coextinctions? PLoS Comput Biol. 2009 Sep; 5(9):e1000494. View in: PubMed

  66. Pascual M, Dobson AP, Bouma MJ. Underestimating malaria risk under variable temperatures. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 Aug 18; 106(33):13645-6. View in: PubMed

  67. Allesina S, Pascual M. Food web models: a plea for groups. Ecol Lett. 2009 Jul; 12(7):652-62. View in: PubMed

  68. Dobson A, Allesina S, Lafferty K, Pascual M. The assembly, collapse and restoration of food webs. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2009 Jun 27; 364(1524):1803-6. View in: PubMed

  69. Allesina S, Bodini A, Pascual M. Functional links and robustness in food webs. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2009 Jun 27; 364(1524):1701-9. View in: PubMed

  70. Pascual M, Bouma MJ. Do rising temperatures matter? Ecology. 2009 Apr; 90(4):906-12. View in: PubMed

  71. King AA, Ionides EL, Pascual M, Bouma MJ. Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics. Nature. 2008 Aug 14; 454(7206):877-80. View in: PubMed

  72. Chaves LF, Kaneko A, Taleo G, Pascual M, Wilson ML. Malaria transmission pattern resilience to climatic variability is mediated by insecticide-treated nets. Malar J. 2008 Jun 02; 7:100. View in: PubMed

  73. Lafferty KD, Allesina S, Arim M, Briggs CJ, De Leo G, Dobson AP, Dunne JA, Johnson PT, Kuris AM, Marcogliese DJ, Martinez ND, Memmott J, Marquet PA, McLaughlin JP, Mordecai EA, Pascual M, Poulin R, Thieltges DW. Parasites in food webs: the ultimate missing links. Ecol Lett. 2008 Jun; 11(6):533-46. View in: PubMed

  74. Allesina S, Alonso D, Pascual M. A general model for food web structure. Science. 2008 May 02; 320(5876):658-61. View in: PubMed

  75. Chaves LF, Cohen JM, Pascual M, Wilson ML. Social exclusion modifies climate and deforestation impacts on a vector-borne disease. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2008 Feb 06; 2(1):e176. View in: PubMed

  76. Chaves LF, Pascual M. Comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseases. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2007 Oct 22; 1(1):e33. View in: PubMed

  77. Codeço CT, Lele S, Pascual M, Bouma M, Ko AI. A stochastic model for ecological systems with strong nonlinear response to environmental drivers: application to two water-borne diseases. J R Soc Interface. 2008 Feb 06; 5(19):247-52. View in: PubMed

  78. Chaves LF, Hernandez MJ, Dobson AP, Pascual M. Sources and sinks: revisiting the criteria for identifying reservoirs for American cutaneous leishmaniasis. Trends Parasitol. 2007 Jul; 23(7):311-6. View in: PubMed

  79. Aparicio JP, Pascual M. Building epidemiological models from R0: an implicit treatment of transmission in networks. Proc Biol Sci. 2007 Feb 22; 274(1609):505-12. View in: PubMed

  80. Alonso D, McKane AJ, Pascual M. Stochastic amplification in epidemics. J R Soc Interface. 2007 Jun 22; 4(14):575-82. View in: PubMed

  81. Koelle K, Cobey S, Grenfell B, Pascual M. Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza A (H3N2) in humans. Science. 2006 Dec 22; 314(5807):1898-903. View in: PubMed

  82. Peacor SD, Allesina S, Riolo RL, Pascual M. Phenotypic plasticity opposes species invasions by altering fitness surface. PLoS Biol. 2006 Oct; 4(11):e372. View in: PubMed

  83. Koelle K, Pascual M, Yunus M. Serotype cycles in cholera dynamics. Proc Biol Sci. 2006 Nov 22; 273(1603):2879-86. View in: PubMed

  84. Pascual M. Computational ecology: from the complex to the simple and back. PLoS Comput Biol. 2005 Jul; 1(2):101-5. View in: PubMed

  85. Koelle K, Rodó X, Pascual M, Yunus M, Mostafa G. Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature. 2005 Aug 04; 436(7051):696-700. View in: PubMed

  86. Koelle K, Pascual M, Yunus M. Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change. Proc Biol Sci. 2005 May 07; 272(1566):971-7. View in: PubMed

  87. Roy M, Pascual M, Levin SA. Competitive coexistence in a dynamic landscape. Theor Popul Biol. 2004 Dec; 66(4):341-53. View in: PubMed

  88. Palmer M, Bernhardt E, Chornesky E, Collins S, Dobson A, Duke C, Gold B, Jacobson R, Kingsland S, Kranz R, Mappin M, Martinez ML, Micheli F, Morse J, Pace M, Pascual M, Palumbi S, Reichman OJ, Simons A, Townsend A, Turner M. Ecology. Ecology for a crowded planet. Science. 2004 May 28; 304(5675):1251-2. View in: PubMed

  89. Rodo X, Pascual M, Fuchs G, Faruque AS. ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change? Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Oct 01; 99(20):12901-6. View in: PubMed

  90. Pascual M, Roy M, Guichard F, Flierl G. Cluster size distributions: signatures of self-organization in spatial ecologies. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2002 May 29; 357(1421):657-66. View in: PubMed

  91. Pascual M, Bouma MJ, Dobson AP. Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidence. Microbes Infect. 2002 Feb; 4(2):237-45. View in: PubMed